I had exactly the same problem. The wiki doesn't help at all and most of the comments by developpers and project managers above as well.
What is missing, is the explanation that the deploy tool is expecting the formerly downloaded components in a SUBDIRECTORY called "DEPLOY". If any component doesn't exist in the subdirectory, then deploy tool will automatically try to download without any notification to the user. Hence it will complain that there is no internet connection and abort the installation without any further information. Also you must ensure you have the applications.XML file available which should not be empty !!!!
There are also cases where the deploy tool simply deletes the components firts and then tries to download them.
It took me quite some time and the offline installation was painful, considering to not install MP.
Anyway just for your info and hope my suffering will not have been in vain.
What is missing, is the explanation that the deploy tool is expecting the formerly downloaded components in a SUBDIRECTORY called "DEPLOY". If any component doesn't exist in the subdirectory, then deploy tool will automatically try to download without any notification to the user. Hence it will complain that there is no internet connection and abort the installation without any further information. Also you must ensure you have the applications.XML file available which should not be empty !!!!
There are also cases where the deploy tool simply deletes the components firts and then tries to download them.
It took me quite some time and the offline installation was painful, considering to not install MP.
Anyway just for your info and hope my suffering will not have been in vain.